Friday, May 25, 2018

Portugal April 2018

Image result for Renault Zoe Portugal
Renault Zoe: An increasingly common sight in Lisbon

Record Month

PEV Sales continue on the fast track in Portugal, with April registering a new record month, with 774 sales (3.6% PEV share), and the 2018 Plug-in Share climbing to a record 2.7%, so there's good reasons to be optimistic and even hope for a 3-4% share by year end.

Looking at the fuels mix, this market is known for its diesel-addiction, due to an unbalanced taxation between gasoline (heavily taxed) and diesel (not so much), but even here, these are historic times, with diesel sales down 8%, with April registering a meagre 51% share for the troubled fuel, while all others increased their sales, some of them spectacularly, like LPG (+171%), and all other Alternative Fuels (CNG, HEV, PHEV, BEV) grew over 75% YoY. At this rate, i wouldn't be surprised if diesel sales would be dead in Portugal by 2024... 

But to be fair, this April had a strong tailwind helping out sales, as the EMOV car-sharing company registered 146 Citroen C-Zero in April, a decisive contribution for the record numbers, but it is also a sign that car-sharing has been picking up steam charge in Lisbon, after the good results that the BMW-supported Drivenow company has shown in that city, and even if EVs are a small part of the operation (With data showing that the BMW i3's of the fleet have the highest utilization rate of the lineup), it was enough for the PSA-supported car-sharing company to also launch itself into Lisbon, and with the added bonus of a 100% BEV fleet.

So, following on the success of Madrid, will we see also the Renault-supported car-sharing company, Zity, reaching Lisbon in a near future?

Moving on, so far the Renault Zoe continues to be where it ended 2017, which means, in the lead, with over twice as much registrations as the new runner-up, the Nissan Leaf.

But the new generation of the Japanese hatchback won't be an easy running mate, in only its second full month on the market, the Nissan BEV has already beaten its French cousin (125 vs 103), which is a first in the last 12 months, and the first time it reached the three digits in this market, although this is just the first of many, with a waiting list said to be in the 600 units, the local importer is limited by the Sunderland factory constraints to deliver all units at once, so expect several months of +/-200 units in the near future, just to deliver the units already ordered.

This will of course limit the 2018 Best Seller race to just two models, with the 2017 winner Renault Zoe trying to defend the title from the four times winner (2010, '11, '14, '16) Nissan Leaf.

The following places are in the hands of company-car friendly cars (BMW 530e, BMW 330e), while the aforementioned Citroen C-Zero leaped to #5, due to the EMOV deal, while the Smart Fortwo ED continues to be popular, in #6, having delivered 41 units last month, a new best for the nameplate.

Looking below, the Kia Niro PHEV joined the Top 20, in #20, thanks to another good deliveries month, it has been said the local Kia importer has been having difficulties to have their share of plug-ins from the mothership, confirming once again the serious production constraints that Hyundai-Kia is experiencing, and validating the phrase: "Hyundai-Kia plug-ins are great...But good luck finding one!".

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW (23%) is back on top, displacing Renault (21%) to Second Place, while Nissan (10%) jumped to Third, removing Mercedes (9%) from the podium.

1Renault Zoe10348521
2Nissan Leaf12523010
3BMW 530e722169
4BMW 330e811717
5Citroen C-Zero1461537
6Smart Fortwo ED411075
7Mercedes GLC350e251065
8Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV26824
9BMW i39753
10Volvo XC60 PHEV19703
11BMW 225xe Active Tourer3663
12Smart Forfour ED15532
13Mini Countryman PHEV 492
14Volvo V60 PHEV17472
15Mercedes E350e9452
16Mercedes C350e7442
17VW Passat GTE6412
18Hyundai Ioniq Electric7311
19Toyota Prius PHEV4301
20Kia Niro PHEV9271
Source: ACAP

Japan April 2018

Image result for Toyota Prius PHV Japan

Toyota recovers ground

In April, some 2,300 units were registered in the Japanese PEV market, up 32% YoY, while the PEV share dropped slightly, to 1.1% share, with the Prius PHEV outselling the new Nissan Leaf for the first time the new Nissan BEV landed.

Despite this setback, the current leader saw its sales jump 119% regarding the same period last year, while its Toyota rival also improved its performance, with +38%.

Looking at the 2018 numbers, the Nissan hatchback profits from the new generation to surge 122%, leaving the Toyota Prius PHEV far behind, watching its sales dive 25% YoY. 

As for the third significant Plug-in model in Japan, the Outlander PHEV, sales are up 12% this year, so far unharmed by the Leaf success (Well, they appeal to different demographics, right?), but neverthless, the Mitsubishi SUV has known better days, as sales are down 40% regarding 2016.

Despite losing ground to Toyota last month ,I think it is safe to say that the Nissan Leaf will recover the Best Selling Ceptre in 2018, but will it add a new sales record?

(The current one is 26,734 units, established last year by the Prius PHEV)

e) Estimate

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Belgium April 2018

Image result for BMW 530e Belgium

BMW 530e Shines

A total of 1,047 passenger plug-ins were registered last month in Belgium, down 17% YoY (First drop in two years), with the YTD count still in positive territory (+13%), but dropping the PEV Share slightly down (-0.1%), to 2.3%.

Interestingly, the drop was due to PHEVs (-23%), as BEVs had a positive month (+16% YoY).

Looking at April Best Selling models, the BMW 530e was #1, with 108 units, allowing it to jump to Second Place in the 2018 ranking, while the Porsche Panamera PHEV was also on the up, climbing one position to Fourth.

Underlining BMW's good month, the BMW i3 was up two positions to #7, but the big climber of the month was the new Nissan Leaf, jumping five places to #14, will we see it on the Top 10 soon? 

Elsewhere, the Audi Q7 e-Tron had its best month in over a year, thanks to 77 deliveries, climbing to #12, while the #20 Volvo S/V90 PHEV twins registered a new year best performance, with 23 deliveries, and outside the Top 20, the Hyundai Ioniq PHEV registered a personal best, with 21 units, if the Korean brand manages to solve their chronic battery constraints, this model will surely jump into the Top 20.

In the manufacturers ranking, last year winner BMW profited from the general good performance from its lineup, to increase the leadership lead, to 32% share (Up 1%), while Volvo (13%, down 1%) and Mercedes (13%) are running for Silver, with the German brand surpassing the Swede in April, if only by just 16 units.

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Denmark April 2018 (Draft)

Image result for PHEVs Denmark

The light at the end of the tunnel?

Despite not having the full sales breakdown of PHEV models, i had to publish a post on the moves happening in Denmark, but first, a little of background on the local market is needed, to understand the current moment, after a positive run until 2014, year that PEVs hit 0.9%, things went off-rail in 2015, as the local government announced fiscal changes that would hit EVs in a big way, which lead to a big sales surge by the end of the year, especially regarding Tesla, leading to a record 2.3% share.

But the long, hard road out of hell, didn't ended there, as 2017 was even worse, with another drop, this time to 0.4%, a performance that placed Denmark far behind from their Scandinavian neighbors.    

There have been talks of new fiscal changes for this year, that i do not know if they have been put in place, but one thing is certain, the 2018 picture looks quite different, in more ways than one, first, sales have gone through the roof this year, to 662 units, placing the 2018 PEV share at 0.9%, while at the same time, PHEVs have taken over this market (52% share), a significant change, considering BEVs used to have some 90% share here.

After these context lines, let's go to the fun part: Plug-in sales.

The two times Best Seller (2013 and '14) Nissan Leaf is back to the in the leadership, thanks to the new generation with the local importer betting heavily on its EV, while the remaining podium positions go to the VW Golf GTE (Already sold out for this year!) and Hyundai Ioniq Electric.

Looking below, it's a PHEV-laden topic, with the recent Kia Niro PHEV showing as a possible medal candidate soon.

In the Manufacturers ranking, Nissan is the Best Seller (29%), with Volkswagen in Second Place (19%), and BMW (16%) is in the Third Spot.

Monday, May 21, 2018

China April 2018 (Updated)

Image result for byd tang 2018
New BYD Tang: A future Best Seller?

BYD and small EVs Shine

After the usual off-season (January and February), the Chinese PEV market is back at full charge, with 71,000 units registered in April, up 129% YoY, with the 2018 sales more than doubling regarding the same period last year, with another 10,000+ commercial vehicles (buses & trucks) being also sold.

Consequently, the record 3.7% PEV share of April, pulled the 2018 share to 2.3%, already above the 2.1% of 2017, and with sales expected to pick up significantly as the year advances, the 2018 PEV share should end North of the 3% threshold, with December possibly reaching 6%.

Last month, the Chinese OEMs represented roughly 50% of all PEVs registered globally, an impressive number, that is sure to increase during 2018.

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, helped by the fact that it is still a protected market and foreign OEMs hadn’t yet looked seriously at this niche, but with PEV quotas to be fulfilled in the near future, foreign brands are finally putting an effort, proof of that is that overseas makers now have a record 7% share. Of this (small) cake, 3% belong to Tesla, 2% to BMW, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%.

In April, besides the continuous slooow production ramp up from BYD, registering its second-best month ever (13,200 units), small city EVs were back on the spotlight, besides the usual BAIC EC-Series, the Zhidou D2 EV and the SAIC Baojun E100 also joined the Top 5 Best Sellers of the Month, making this segment hot again.  

Here’s April Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

Image result for 2018 BAIC EC-Series
#1 – BAIC EC-Series: After an outlandish Q4 2017, with three five-digit performances, the EC-Series seems to have stabilized around 7-8,000 units/month this year, with April registering 7,471 units, up 72% YoY. The little EV continues being disruptive in the Chinese market, winning 7 of the last 8 Monthly Best-Selling trophies. A cute design helps the EC-Series to be a popular choice in the Chinese Mega-Cities, where the 180 kms range are enough to run around the urban jungle.

Image result for BYD e5 450
#2 – BYD e5: BYD’s Plain Jane electric sedan, a favorite among taxi-drivers, registered 4,294 units in March, a new record for the nameplate for the second month in a row. This second youth is due to a facelift this year and, most importantly, a larger battery, allowing it to improve specs (61 kWh, 400 kms range NEDC, 218 hp), for a competitive price (CNY 220,650 / USD 34,600), the model is a bit of an unsung hero in the BYD stable, as the 73,000 units sold so far mean that it is the brand third bestselling PEV, behind the Qin and Tang models.

Image result for Zhidou D2 EV
#3 – Zhidou D2 EV: If the EC-Series can be considered “cute”, this bare-basics city vehicle design is as dull as a dishwasher. Nevertheless, they continue to be sold in large quantities (4,152 units in April), due to a combination of bargain-basement prices and big fleet deals, aided by updated specs in 2018. This vehicle is sold as a Quadricycle (Think Renault Twizy class) in some European countries, with the following specs: 18 kWh battery, 155 kms range, 100 kms max.speed, all this for some 16,000€.

Image result for 2018 BYD Qin PHEV
#4 – BYD Qin PHEV: The most common plug-in in China (Over 140,000 units) had another good performance in April, with 4,134 units, being BYD’s “Model 3” eighth consecutive “3 to 4 thousand units/month” result (Talk about consistency!). Considering a new Qin is coming in a few months, it is surprising that the current one is still going strong. As for the new generation, sales above 5,000/month should become the norm, becoming the Best Selling BYD.

Image result for 2018 Baojun E100
#5 – SAIC Baojun E100: Shanghai Auto and General Motors have high hopes for their tiny two-seater, and with the MY2018 version being ramped up, it is starting to make an impact on the Chinese plug-in market, having registered 3,760 units last month, a year best. Will it reach the BAIC EC-Series numbers? I wouldn’t rule out that possibility, and even export prospects, as it could be marketed as GM’s Smart-like product outside China. Spec-wise, if range (155 kms NEDC) and power (39 hp) is not amazing, its price (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) is, especially considering its modern design and features.

Image result for hawtai xev260
Hawtai xEV260

2018 ranking

There were plenty of changes on the top positions, the most important was the BYD Qin PHEV climbing to Third Spot, making it two BYD’s in the podium, while its sibling e5 joined the Top 5, underlining a positive month for the brand.

Other significant changes were the Roewe i6 PHEV sedan climbing one position to #6, while small EVs (Zhidou D2 EV, Baojun E100, Chery eQ1) are jumping the ranking ladder, now that their specs are complying with the 2018 rules.

Down below, the Hawtai xEV260 jumped two positions, to #18, thanks to 1,418 units, a new record for the compact SUV.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD is at the throne, but has lost 3% share (24% to 21%), as the market is growing even faster than the BYD ramp up, while the runner-up BAIC also lost ground (15%, down 2%).

In Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (10%) is holding the last place of the podium, but if we look at SAIC’s global result (Roewe+MG+Baojun+Maxus), the share adds up to 14%, confirming it as the Third largest Chinese OEM in the New Energy Vehicles field.

Friday, May 18, 2018

Luxembourg April 2018

Tesla Model S ahead in Models, Volvo leads in Manufacturers

Considering most PEV markets are experiencing two, even three, digits growth rates, Luxembourg can be considered as a slow lane market, after a fast growing 2017, sales in 2018 are just growing 7% YoY, with 290 new PEV's registered in 2018, with the PEV Share showing a rather low 1.5%. Let's hope the second half of the year shows this market back at the fast lande 

The two times Best Seller (2016 & '17) Tesla Model S continues in the lead, with 25 units, but only 9% share, as this is one of the most fragmented markets worldwide. followed closely by the Renault Zoe and the Volvo XC60 PHEV, with the French hatchback trying to recover the Best Selling trophy it had won in 2013 and 2014, while the Swedish SUV is confirming once again its popularity across Europe.

ith surprising low positions, we have the #12 Tesla Model X, with locals showing a distinct preference for its lower-riding sibling, while the BMW i3, #9 last year and #2 in 2016, is just #17 this year, allocation problems?

A different story explains the #20 position of the all-conquering new Nissan Leaf. For some reason, the Japanese hatchback never caught on here, ending in #20 last year, and #12 in 2016. In fact, the highest standing for the Nissan model in Luxembourg was Third, its only podium place, back in 2013. Not enough promotion from the local importer? 

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, we have possibly the most balanced race anywhere, with the current leader Volvo (16%) being closely followed by BMW (15%), with the Third Placed Volkswagen (13%) not that far, while Tesla (12%) and Mercedes (10%) are on the lookout to join the medal positions.