Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Battery Makers 2017

Image result for Tesla Model 3 battery


Batteries had a faster production growth rate (+70%) than EV's (+58%) in 2017, as the market became more BEV-oriented and a number of models had their batteries super-sized.


Panasonic continues to lead the charge, but has dropped share, Tesla continues to pull the company boat, but this year it had the help of Toyota, thanks to the Prius Prime, this time with a decently-sized battery (For a PHEV, at least).

With the all-important Model 3 ramp up happening in 2018, expect Panasonic to continue leading throughout the year.

As for BYD, it kept the Second Place, but lost significant market share, due to production constraints, which lead the company to bet more on PHEV models than in their battery-heavy BEV versions.

LG followed the market, mostly thanks to the battery-hungry Chevrolet Bolt, but behind it, CATL was a close Fourth, with the Chinese company jumping two positions in 2017, benefitting from the Chinese PEV rise, namely the BAIC EC-Series.

If the Chinese PEV market continues to grow in 2018 like it did last year, expect CATL to replace LG in the Battery Makers podium, making two Chinese companies in the Top 3.




Pl
Battery Makers
2017 MWh
2016
MWh
% '17
    %' 16
1
Panasonic 
10.125
6.665
29
33
2
3
BYD
LG Chem
4.693
3.523
4.020
2.285
14
10
20
11

TOTAL
34.772
20.400




A small remark, these are provisional numbers, based in some battery-size assumptions (eg, Tesla) and should serve as an indication, not as carved in stone values.

Monday, February 12, 2018

FCEV's Full Year 2017

We take a look at Fuel Cell vehicles sales performance in 2017, after the introduction of the Toyota Mirai in 2015, FCEV's are on their Year Two, more or less where EV's were in 2012, so if they follow the same growth curve as plug-ins, we should see this technology reach 100.000 sales this year.

Well, did it? At 3.382 units registered this year, up 46% YoY, it is well below that, so...2017 was not the year that FCEV's took off.

But let's look at the individual performances of the three models currently on sale:


Image result for toyota mirai specs
Toyota Mirai - 2.689 Mirai were registered in 2017, a 32% increase over the previous year, but below expectations. I had thought the model would be selling around 1.000 units/month, so...Why the slow sales?


Image result for Honda Clarity FCEV
Honda Clarity FCEV - 524 units were registered in  2017, well above the 2016 numbers, its landing year, but below expectations (1.000 units in 2017). But the interesting thing here is that Honda, maybe realizing the upcoming disaster, decided to make the car available also as PHEV and BEV. And both Plug-in versions are outselling the Fuel Cell...


Image result for hyundai ix35 fcev
Hyundai ix35/Tucson FCEV - Numbers of the Korean Fuel Cell were up slightly (+6%) regarding 2016, with 169 units being registered this year. A discontinued model in its ICE form, and currently being done by special order, it is waiting for its Nexo sucessor to finally retire.





Friday, February 9, 2018

2017 EV Stock by Fast-charging (Updated)

Here is an update to the table:


            Number of EV's sold by type of Fast Charging protocol

Year
Chademo
CCS
Tesla
2011
33.301
2012
38.852
2.721
2013
72.701
3.391
22.442
2014
100.280
25.521
31.655
2015
2016
 2017
TOTALS
108.680
100.670
126.475
580.959
45.273
41.941
85.475
201.601
50.567
76.243
103.122
286.750

Tesla SC outsells CCS and Chademo in 2017

As one can see, all fast-charging standards had a great 2017, with Chademo leading, thanks to the surging Japanese sales of the Prius PHEV and Korean sales of the Ioniq BEV, while CCS is having a significant boost, as BMW i3, Chevrolet Bolt, VW e-Golf and Hyundai Ioniq Electric are all adding volume to their sales. On the other hand, most brands behind it are still focused on plug-in hybrids, that don't include fast-charging.

2018 will be an all important year in the race between Chademo and CCS, as the new Nissan Leaf will defend Chademo's lead over the rising CCS-Armada of BEV's.

Finally, while the Tesla SC is not intended to fight the other two, the truth is that strong sales of the Tesla brand made it the best selling Fast-charging protocol, increasing its lead over the CCS and with the ever-expanding network, top-of-the-range charging abilities and the undisclosed numbers of the popular Model 3 being added in the following years, expect the Tesla SC to remain a popular fast charging standard in the next decades. 

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

2017 by brand origin


Country     2017 sales   %
China 576 871 47
Germany 208 563 18
USA 187 351 15
Japan 129 479 11
France 47 550 4
S. Korea 40 580 3


Besides the fact that Chinese brands are responsible for almost half of Plug-ins sold in 2017, the most interesting fact is when we look at previous years and look at how relentless has China's rise been:

- In 2013, China was only the Fourth largest PEV maker, with 6% share;

- The following year, they climbed to Third, jumping share to 17%;

- 2015 was their first year as the largest Global PEV maker, with 31% share;

- Not Happy with the #1 status, in 2016 they increased their share to 43%.

Looking into 2018, China will end up probably above 50% share, which should start to worry Legacy OEMs, as they get squeezed from both ends (Premium - Tesla / Mainstream - China).

Regarding other countries, Germany held steady, losing only 1% share, while the USA lost 2% share regarding 2016, ending 2017 with only 15% of the total market, its lowest share ever and far from its highest point, recorded in 2013 (31%).

Japan is even worse, with the current 11% share being miles behing the 49% share it had in 2012...

France held to their 4% share, but they are also far from their better days (14% in 2012), while South Korea grew 1% share regarding 2016, a new record, and a stark improvement over 2014, when they had...0%.

Monday, February 5, 2018

South Korea Full Year 2017

Image result for Hyundai Ioniq Electric in South Korea

IONIQ and the rest 

The headlining news is the disruptive effect that the Hyundai Ioniq Electric is having, winnin for the secon time in a row the Best Seller status,with nearly 8.000 registrations, helping to pull the market in 2017 to over 14.000 units, almost tripling sales regarding 2016, with the PEV share hitting a record 0.9%, up from 0.4% in the previous year and only 0.2% in 2015.

Despite recent production increases the aforementioned Hyundai model, it is said to be still production constrained, so registrations can only go up, which added to the arrival of the Hyundai Kona BEV and Kia Niro BEV, sales are expected to shoot even higher, will we se this market reach 3% share in 2018?

The remaining models are also seeing their sales increase, with the Kia Soul EV recovering the runner-up status, all while doubling its previous best (954 units, in '15).

Despite dropping to Third, the Samsung SM3 ZE also has reasons to smile about, as sales also doubled regarding its previous best (1.043 units in 2015).

Outside the podium there was an intriguing event, with the Twizy having a thunderous December (Fleet deal?), allowing it to surpass the production constrained Chevrolet Bolt.


Pl
Model
2017
1
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
7.842
2
Kia Soul EV
2.161
3
4
5

Ren. Samsung SM3 ZE
Ren. Samsung Twizy
Chevrolet Bolt
Others
2.014
691
588
930

TOTAL
14.226




See you soon!

Saturday, February 3, 2018

News Flash - 03/02/18

TIPPING POINT IN NORWAY?

The reduced overall January sales (-30%!) in Norway is linked to the lack of access to BEV:
This article comments a survey, where the main conclusion was that, given access to BEV, the share would be 45%
https://www.motor.no/artikler/nar-halve-norge-vil-kjope-elbil/
These numbers are of course highly inaccurate but with the BEV share rising from 17 to 23% YoY in January, a 45% score in a survey underlines that there is a lot of waiting
This article confirms that the decrease is expected to be dominated by lack of available BEV: http://bilnorge.no/artikkel.php?aid=49375

Has the Norwegian PEV market hit the tipping point where there will be a stampede, with people ditching their ICE vehicles in Exchange for "The Next Big Thing" (BEV)?

Hat tip to Terje!

Friday, February 2, 2018

Japan December 2017



Image result for prius prime
Prius PHV: Japan 2017 Best Seller. by a 1.000 miles, but...
What about in 2018?

Prius PHV #1 in record levels

If the first half of 2017 saw this market recovering, thanks to the introduction of the new Toyota Prius PHV, ruling without competition for the most part of the year, the October introduction of the new Nissan Leaf cemented the recovery, with Nissan's hatchback always beating the Toyota nameplate since. 


Thanks to these two new models and the help of BMW, the 2017 PEV share finally climbed north of the 1% barrier, at 1,1%, being the first time the Japanese market surpasses the all-important 1% barrier (In 2013 it reached 0.92%, '14 had 0.98%).

The 2017 Best Seller trophy went to Toyota and its Prius PHV, thanks to over 26.000 units, obliterating all previous records, and providing the brand's second award (The first was in 2012), but for the 2018 edition, the Toyota nameplate wil have a much harder task at hand, as the Nissan Leaf is said to have a 30-45k sales target for Japan alone.  


Pl
Japan
Dec.
  2017
     %
Pl '16
1
2
Toyota Prius PHV
Nissan Leaf *
1.674
2.306
26.734
16.925
48
30
N/A
1
3
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
343
4.774
9
2
4
BMW 225xe A.Tourer e)
175
1.598
3
N/A
5
BMW 330e  e)
100
954
2
N/A
6
BMW i3  e)
125
871
2
N/A

Others
462
4.089
6


TOTAL
5.185
55.945
100


e) Estimate

* - Includes Leaf I & II