Friday, November 17, 2017

China October 2017

Image result for BAIC EC180 price


BAIC EC-Series scores 11.000 units in October


The rise and rise of the Chinese PEV market is unstoppable, with yet another record performance in October, with 66.000 new passenger PEVs being registered last month, almost doubling the result of October ‘16, while pulling the YTD count to over 405.000 units, up 55% YoY.

As consequence of this, the 2017 PEV market share has crossed for the first time the 2% share, firmly ahead of last year score (1.5%). As sales are expected to grow even further until the end of the year, the Chinese PEV market might even reach the 2.5% share by year end.

This is still a highly protected market, where 94% of sales belong to domestic brands. Of the 6% left for foreign brands, 4% belong to Tesla, 1% to BMW, with the remaining 1% being divided by all other auto makers.

In October, both small city cars and compact SUV’s placed two representatives in the Top 5, with the EC-Series beating the world record for registrations in a single month, with 11.315 units, while the new 100 kms range version has given the BYD Qin PHEV a second youth, delivering 4.102 units, a new record for the nameplate.


Here’s October Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

 Image result for BAIC EC
#1 – BAIC EC-Series: I would say the 11.315 EC-Series registered in October were an historical landmark, after all it was the first time that a single model crossed into the five-digit sales, but with ever improving performances since the 2.563 units of last June, it looks that numbers will continue to go upwards until December. The little city EV is doing a revolution in China, owing its success to a trendy design, reminding that of a Crossover, improved specs (Now with 200 kms range) and competitive pricing (19.000€), all in a booming market segment. With the Chinese edition of the 2017 Best Selling PEV title already in their hands, BAIC is now looking to win the global edition of the same award, and to that end, last month it has surpassed the Big Boys (Leaf, Prius Prime and Model S), thus becoming the first Chinese model to reach #1 on the global market.

Image result for zhidou d2
#2 – Zhidou D2 EV: Bare-basics city vehicle that continues to be delivered in large quantities (4.502 units in October), probably due to fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a Quadricycle (Think Renault Twizy) in some European countries, with the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 kms range, 90 kms max. speed, all this for some 16.000€. The brand has ambitious plans to market it as a car-sharing vehicle in Europe, will local consumers want to drive it?

Image result for 2018 byd qin dm
#3 – BYD Qin PHEV: Thanks to a recently increased range (100 kms), BYD’s sports sedan (0-100 kms/h in 5.9s) recovered its mojo and had a record 4.102 registrations in October. With a competitive price (31.000$ before incentives) and full access to government incentives, sales are expected to remain high, as long as BYD manages to make enough of them, in order to satisfy demand.

Image result for white BYD Song PHEV
#4 – BYD Song PHEV: If the Qin is the “Model 3” of BYD, the Song is the “Model Y”, a VW Tiguan-sized SUV, here in plug-in hybrid version, last month it registered 3.064 units, dropping some 700 units regarding the previous month. Is the Qin renewed success hurting the Song demand or is it just a case of production constraints? I believe the full potential of BYD’s compact SUV could be around 5.000 units/month.

Image result for jac iev6s specs
#5 – JAC iEV6S: One of the EV pioneers in China, selling plug-ins since 2010, JAC is trying to regain relevance with its iEV6S, a compact Crossover (Think Kia Soul) that registered 2.861 units in October, allowing it to reach a Top 5 position last month. A vehicle targeted to hip urbanites, for a competitive 26.000$ before incentives, you get a trendy city model, with a 33kWh battery providing decent range (251 kms NEDC), and the engine has enough power (114 hp), to give it the “go” needed for their customers supposedly active life.


Image result for SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV
Roewe eRX5 is making itself noticed

 
Year-to-Date Ranking – BAIC EC-Series orders the 2017 title

In a stable market, the big news is the EC-Series (almost) definitely securing this year Best Seller title, a first for BAIC and the first time since 2013 that BYD loses the Best Selling Models award. At the time, the best seller was the Chery QQ3 EV, with 5.727 units. With two months to go, the EC-Series is now at 49.000…

To see some changes in the ranking, we have to go Fifth Place, where the JAC iEV6S climbed one position, while the BYD Qin PHEV jumped four positions to #10, surpassing among others, the stablemate BYD Tang, which dropped two positions to #12, a surprisingly low position for the 2016 Best Selling model.

On the rise is also the Roewe eRX5 BEV, jumping to #15, thanks to a record 2.811 deliveries, with other models also hitting personal records, besides the aforementioned BAIC EC-Series, BYD Qin PHEV and Roewe eRX5 BEV, three recent additions scored relevant results: The Changan Eulove EV scored 1.201 units, Hawtai registered 2.112 EV160’s and the much awaited Wuling E100 is at 1.724 units in its only third full month on the market. No production hell here…

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (20%, up 1%) is comfortable at the Throne, keeping the runner-up BAIC (16%, up 1%) at a safe distance. At least for now.

In Third Place we (still) have Zhidou, with 9% share, with Roewe (9%, up 1%) closing in, with the Shanghai-based manufacturer trying to reach the podium, in its bid to become the Third of China’s “Big 3 PEV” club.


Pl
China
Oct.
YTD
%
1
BAIC EC-Series
11315
49191
12
2
Zhidou D2 EV
4502
37093
9
3
BYD Song PHEV
3064
22910
6
4
BYD e5
2386
20649
5
5
JAC iEV6S
2861
18585
5
6
Geely Emgrand EV
1742
17990
4
7
Chery eQ  
1996
16762
4
8
SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV
1593
15042
4
9
Changan Benni EV 
632
12375
3
10
BYD Qin PHEV
4102
11937
3
11
Zotye E200
2349
11612
3
12
BYD Tang
868
11329
3
13
JMC E100
246
10663
3
14
BAIC EU-Series
412
8656
2
15
SAIC Roewe eRX5 BEV
2811
7638
2
16
JMC E200
1799
7386
2
17
Tesla Model S   e)
350
6498
2
18
Tesla Model X   e)
500
6481
2
19
Zotye Cloud EV
276
5840
1
20
Kandi K12 EV
1638
5664
1
Others
21001
100831

TOTAL
66443
405132





Thursday, November 16, 2017

South Korea October 2017 (Draft)

Image result for Hyundai Ioniq Electric in South Korea

IONIQ and the rest 

The headlining news is the disruptive effect that the arrival of the Hyundai Ioniq plug-in twins are having, pulling this year market to over 10.000 units (10.075, to be precise), up three fold YoY, with a record 0.8% PEV share, up from 0.4% in the previous year and only 0.2% in 2015.

Despite recent production increases the aforementioned Hyundai model, it is said to be still production constrained, so registrations can only go up, and the 1% share is still possible to be obtained this year.

The remaining models are also seeing their sales increase, with the Kia Soul EV losing the Second Position to the Samsung SM3 ZE, but showing how fast the market is growing, both models have already beaten their yearly records, with two months still to go.

An intriguing addition to the market is the arrival of the Chevrolet Bolt, considering the 2017 production is already sold out, and there is still has a 1.500 orders waiting list to fill, it will be interesting to see if Chevrolet puts a real effort in 2018 and delivers its BEV model in enough volumes to allow the nameplate registrations to take off.

With Europe out of the equation, now that Opel is part of PSA, Chevrolet has South Korea to prove that the Bolt is not a North America thing...Unless this is all part of the "No one wants EV's" narrative.

PlModel2017
1Hyundai Ioniq Electric5.581
2Renault Samsung SM3 ZE1.569
3
4
5

Kia Soul EV                       
Chevrolet Bolt
Hyundai Ioniq PHEV
Others
1.050
457
419
999

TOTAL10.075

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Germany October 2017

Image result for Audi A3 e-Tron


Smart Fortwo ED Shines


The EV Fever has definitely caught on in Germany, a near record month in October, with 4.979 plug-in passenger cars registered last month, a 92% increase YoY, with the YTD PEV share at a record 1.4%.

Looking at October Best Selling models, the Smart Fortwo ED scored a record 398 deliveries, a number that displaced the VW e-Golf from the leadership.

Another model in High Voltage is the Kia Soul EV, reaching the Bronze medal,  with 380 units, respecting the tradition of ending the year on a high note.


PlModel
Sales  
1Smart Fortwo ED398
2
Volkswagen e-Golf
389
3Kia Soul EV380
4
BMW 225xe A.Tourer
374
5
BMW i3
332

The most relevant change was the VW e-Golf climbing to #6, with the all-electric Golf now aiming for a Top 5 place.

Below the Top 10, the Smart Fortwo ED jumped to #12, with its (slightly) larger sibling, the Forfour ED, climbing one position, to #25, while the BMW 530e is confirming to be a popular model, climbing to #15, thanks to 142 sales.

Speaking of recently landed models, the much antecipated Kia Niro PHEV joined the ranking, in #27.

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW (21%) is in the lead, with Volkswagen (15%, up 2%) in Second Place, all while Mercedes (12%, up 1%) and Audi (11%) run for the last place in the podium.

Regarding the BEV/PHEV share, plug-in hybrids are winning the upper hand, now having 55% share, while last year they were the minority (44%).

A final mention to the DHL Streetscooter Work van, the September record of 827 units didin't lasted long, with October the van scored 898 registrations, allowing it to lead the 2017 Europe's LCV plug-in market, ahead of the Nissan e-NV200 and Renault Kangoo ZE usual best sellers.

The model is becoming disruptive, pulling the German LCV PEV share to a record 3.2% in October, even beating Norway's share, and the 2017 share to 1.4%, the same as the passenger car class.

With rumours of some 100.000 units of potential demand for its Streetscooter lineup, DHL may have struck gold in this endeavor.

PlGermanyOct. YTD%'16 Pl
1
2
Audi A3 e-Tron
Renault Zoe
296
243
3.939
3.786
10
9
4
2
3
4
BMW i3
BMW 225xe Active Tour.
332
374
3.319
2.966
8
7
1
10
5
6
Kia Soul EV
Volkswagen e-Golf
380
389
2.360
2.003
6
5
7
 12
7Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
1661.92456
8Tesla Model S1121.82345
9
10
11
Volkswagen Passat GTE
Mercedes GLC350e
Volkswagen Golf GTE
235
265
301
1.629
1.457
1.453
4
4
4
9
23
8
12
13
Smart Fortwo ED
Mercedes C350e e)
398
53
1.214
1.100
3
3
35
15
14
15
16
17
Tesla Model X
BMW 530e
Volkswagen e-Up!
Nissan Leaf
49
142
53
57
957
863
856
736
2
2
2
2
19
N/A
17
11
17Mercedes E350e
98
736232
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Por. Panamera PHEV
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Audi Q7 e-Tron
Mercedes B250e
BMW 330e
Volvo XC90 T8
Smart Forfour ED
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Kia Niro PHEV
Mini Countryman PHEV
Mercedes GLE500e
BMW 740e
Others
97
47
55
10
27
48
106
22
196
46
18
34
330
716
564
563
515
458
440
411
404
383
316
284
258
2.703
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
30
36
13
18
20
13
N/A
25
N/A
N/A
24
27

TOTAL
4.979
41.136
100



Source: kba.de


Plug-ins and Regular Hybrids


Pl
Model
Oct. Sales  
1
Toyota Yaris Hybrid
1.204
2
Toyota C-HR Hybrid
839
3
Toyota Auris Hybrid
770
4
Toyota RAV4 Hybrid
514
5
Smart Fortwo ED
398

As plug-ins reach new heights, it is now time to compare them with regular hybrids, a class completely owned by Toyota, placing four models in the the Top 4 places, if the podium places seem unaccessible for now, the #4 RAV4 seems attainable plug-ins, as the PEV market grows.





Tesla Model S & Others


Pl
Model
Oct. Sales  
1
Mercedes S-Class
635
2
Audi A8
607
3
Porsche Panamera
315
4
BMW 7-Series
269
...
7
...
Tesla Model S
...
112

As the Tesla Sports Sedan reaches historic high levels, it is time to see if it can make a dent on the German flagship models, for now the Mercedes S-Class leads the way, with 635 units last month, while the recent Audi A8 follows, with 607 deliveries. 

The Model S from Tesla was only Seventh, with 112 units, but this behaviour is typical of the first month of each quarter, more important is the fact that deliveries doubled regarding the same month of 2016.